Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
