A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
